The present disclosure relates generally to distributing supplies, and more particularly to modeling distribution of emergency relief supplies for disaster operations. When disasters occur (e.g., such as hurricane, earthquake, fire, bioterrorism, and others), emergency supplies (e.g., water, meal, medicine, generators, blankets, tarps, and others) need to be distributed to victims on time. The distribution operations in those situations (e.g., supply chain and dispensing) are unique because the operations need to cover a large number of people (e.g., million of victims) in a short period of time (e.g., a small number of hours or days) under undesirable conditions for supply chain operation (chaos, damaged and/or congested roadways, behavior of victims, progression of disasters, many unknowns and uncertainties), and serious consequences of an ineffective distribution plan (sickness, social disorder, and others). It is usually a one time event of short duration with limited opportunity for re-planning the supply chain design.
Relief distribution supply chain operations differ from typical industrial supply chains. Unlike standard stationary demand distribution assumptions, relief operations need to take into account a huge surge in demand within short notice. Unfavorable logistical conditions for supply chain operations such as chaotic traffic, damaged/congested roadways and chaotic behavior of demand (victims) have to be explicitly considered. Additionally, lead time requirements are short. Preparing for a large disaster such as hurricane is difficult primarily because of the high uncertainty involved in predicting where and when it will strike. Therefore, operational research models to improve preparedness for and response to major emergencies would be desirable.
A typical distribution for relief supplies starts from a central warehousing or like, to a staging area from where the supplies are distributed to individual point of distribution (POD) locations. Persons needing the supplies collect them from the POD locations. In most disaster situations, demand from victims exhibits high uncertainty and variability. Disaster relief supplies may reach different POD locations at different speed and with different quantities, creating an imbalance between the supply and demand. For example, certain PODs may experience shortage of supplies and certain other POD location may experience surplus during disaster response operations. Thus, it is desirable that each POD location has the correct amount for distribution to the demand at that location.